Fading Houston off surprise win vs. Memphis: Miami Heat 1H -9
The Rockets stunned the Grizzlies yesterday, winning by 11 from the position of 10.5-point underdogs. This unlikely W brings Houston to a second-to-last in the League 16-48 SU on the season (and third worst 26-37-1 ATS). We are selling Houston high Monday and backing the Heat. Home teams that earned a berth in last year's playoffs are a fadeable 45-68-1 versus the number so far this season, so we are reticent to give up the 15.5. However we are comfortable laying the first half chalk at FTX Arena, as we expect Miami to come out strong early.
Supporting our thinking, we have observed that in non-conference action featuring favorites that appeared in the prior post-season, fading teams taking at least 8.5 in the first half and that missed the last playoffs has proven quite profitable historically.
This angle has delivered a 15% return back to 2005-06 and is 4-1 ATS this season.
Regarding personnel, the Rockets' Eric Gordon and Dennis Schroeder are out per today's injury report, while Kyle Lowry is listed as probable.