Season-to-date record: 44-47-2, 48%
Backing the UNDER in clash among elite defenses: Suns @ Lakers u215.5
The Suns (22-11) finished February with a superlative 12-3 SU/ATS record, powered by the eighth best offense and fourth best defense in the League (by points per 100 possessions). As a result, Phoenix sits in the third spot in the Pacific Division.
The Suns will look to close the gap on the top-dog, division-leading, LA Lakers (24-11) Tuesday, at Staples Center. The Lakers have had to manage without Anthony Davis since mid-February, and are a meager 3-4 SU/ATS as a result. The champs' elite defense has held up despite Davis' absence, but the Lakers' offense has suffered, falling from roughly average, to about four points per 100 possessions below average (point guard, Dennis Schroder's return to the Lakers' lineup after missing four games has not improved the LA's offensive efficiency)..
The combination of two top-tier defenses plus one impaired offense equals UNDER, in our estimation. Also favoring a lower aggregate score, the Lakers and Suns rank 20th and 23rd respectively, by effective possession ratio, which measures shot attempts per possession. So we expect a limited number of scoring opportunities. Accordingly, we are betting on disappointing scores Tuesday.
Consistent with our thinking, we observe the following team level trends:
The Suns are O/U is 6-10 away and 2-3 as road dogs,
The Lakers O/U is tied for League worst at 12-23,
LA's UNDER is 8-15 following a win,
The UNDER is 6-1 in Lakers games since Davis' injury,
Lakers/Suns O/U 2-5 in head-to-head action in the LeBron era.
Additionally, through the lens of broader trends, we have observed that divisional matchups where dollars wagered on the O/U are concentrated on the OVER have proven solid plays for the UNDER--delivering an 8% return on investment since 2015, including a 16-13 run so far this year. Further, this system has returned a profit in each season of our observation period.
Preliminarily, 84% of dollars bid on this game's total are supporting the OVER. This figure is subject to change, but as long as the level remains at 55% of higher by tipoff, an UNDER play will be triggered for this system. If the betting public's optimism over the Suns' offense and LeBron's potential continue to drive lopsided flows into the OVER, the number is likely to improve for UNDER backers. As such, inclined bettors might be well served by exercising patience and monitoring conditions before piling on.
Happy betting!!
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