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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

Mar 2nd NBA Action: Denver Nuggets to Try Milwaukee Bucks' Home Win Streak

Updated: Mar 19, 2021

Season-to-date record: 44-47-2, 48%

Buying the Bucks' momentum: Milwaukee -6.5

Since dropping consecutive games to Toronto at Fiserv Forum in mid-February, the Bucks have rattled off five straight wins, all on their home floor. We are betting Milwaukee pads the numbers for this extended home stand Tuesday, with a win and cover versus the Denver Nuggets.

Supporting our thinking, historically, success at home has in fact begat success at home.

Home teams on four to six game win streaks, after at least five straight in their building have proven solid bets historically.

To date signals have proven rare, but this system has delivered a wallet-swelling 38% return on investment since 2005, with sub-50% years in only three seasons over this span.

Importantly, statistical inference suggests that, despite the slight sample size, the observed 70% cover rate is statistically significantly different (i.e. greater) than the 52.4% cover rate required to breakeven at the standard -110 vigorish.

On personnel, Denver traveled to Chicago with only 11 players available for Monday's action, with covid and related precautions responsible for RJ Hampton's and Facundo Campazzo's absence, after injuries sidelined Paul Millsap and then Gary Harris around the middle of last month.

Player availability appears likely to be an issue for the Nuggets again Tuesday, especially at the power forward position. This is particularly relevant considering the Nuggets will face the best player in the game at the position.

(Just to offer some context for how dominant Giannis is, ESPN's Real Plus-Minus statistic not only slates Antetokuompo as tops at his position -- worth two Kevin Durants, the next best power forward -- but the Freak Greek is the fifth best player in the League overall by this measure...and the best the Nuggets have to offer will probably be third string opposition.)

Happy betting!!


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