Season-to-date record: 71-66-2, 52%
Fading defense when Nuggets host Hawks: Atlanta @ Denver o228.5
The betting total is dropping like a rock for Sunday's matchup between the Atlanta Hawks at the Denver Nuggets, falling from an opening level of 228.5 to 222 currently.
Fueling the plummet, The Action Network reports multiple steam moves on UNDER 227.5 and UNDER 224.
In aggregate, 61% of O/U wagers are down on the UNDER. Remarkably, this lopsided volume only accounts for 48% of dollars bet on the total. However, well-respected players clearly favor lower scores for this matchup, and bookmakers have responded emphatically.
We are looking the other way--betting on an exceedingly high combined score, in spite of the apparent clout behind the UNDER. Supporting our contrarian spirit, first, we note that the present has not exactly been a spot where sharp money has shined.
Historically, fading stream moves on the UNDER (at Pinnacle) that drive the O/U line down at least five points has been good for a 16% return on investment.
More directly though, we are betting the OVER because we believe the combination of altitude and time zone shifts sufficiently disrupts circadian rhythms of teams coming from the East. We expect a result of such disturbances is that athletes playing under these conditions take plays off (on defense in particular, where temporary lapses might be less noticeable). Higher than expected scores are typically the result.
Backing the OVER when the Nuggets host Eastern Conference teams has in fact amassed a 9% return on investment since 2004, with only three full seasons with cover rates below 50%. This system is 5-1 so far this year.
Fundamentally, these teams both feature above-average offenses and below average defenses. The Nuggets have managed 118 points per 100 offensive possessions to this point in the season, versus a League average of 113, while Atlanta has mustered 114 points per 100 trips this year. The Nuggets and Hawks have given up 114 and 113 points, respectively. Against this backdrop, a shootout Sunday also makes intuitive sense.
Bottom line: Despite the smart money cohort pounding the O/U lower, we are taking the notably square position of backing the OVER when the Nuggets host the Hawks Sunday, largely because we think there is favorable physiology at work when teams play in Denver's extreme altitude after losing a few hours to travel. Denver's and Atlanta's particular tendencies this season appear consistent with this expectation.
Given the immense pressure the total like has experienced, inclined bettors might capture value by letting the dust settle and jumping on the OVER closer to tip-off.
Happy betting!!