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Mar 24th NBA Action: Denver Nuggets @ Toronto Raptors


Season-to-date record: 65-60-2, 52%


Fading the Raptors at home: Nuggets -1


In stark contrast to the Raptors 9-5 February, Toronto has dropped nine games in a row so far in March, straight up. The dinos are also 1-5 ATS in their last six.


We expect Toronto's soft showing of late to persist Wednesday, and are fading the slight dogs at home.


We note that, historically, solid teams taking points at home from (at least) fairly strong opposition have been great fades following tough patches.


Betting against home dogs that made the previous post-season, but that won and covered no more than one of their last five games, has proven highly profitable long-term when the opposing team likewise made an appearance in the last playoffs.



This system has delivered a 16% return on investment since 2005, including a 7-3 ATS run so far this year. Further, this approach submitted a cover rate below 50% in only four completed seasons.


Team level tends evident so far this year likewise appear to lean towards the Nuggets cover Wednesday:


  • Toronto is 11-14 ATS following a loss,

  • The Raptors are 8-10 vs. the number at their own Amalie Arena,

  • Toronto is 7-8 facing the West, and

  • The Raptors are 2-5 ATS with a rest advantage,

  • Denver 10-6 ATS this year as road favorites,

  • The Nuggets are 10-8 vs. the East,

  • But Denver is also 10-14 ATS following SU wins.


Happy betting!!


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