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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

Mar 24th NBA Action: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Chicago Bulls


Season-to-date record: 65-60-2, 52%


Betting on disappointing scores in Central Division showdown: Cavaliers @ Bulls u219


Chicago and Cleveland have combined for an O/U record of 40-44 so far this year, suggesting a modest bias toward the UNDER, in general, when either of these teams see action.


Further, the Cavs O/U is 8-11 away from Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse this season, while the Bulls UNDER is a definitive 7-3 when Chicago is laying chalk at the United Center.


We are betting that Wednesday's action, true to form when either Chicago or Cleveland hits the court, will unfold as a low-scoring affair relative to expectations. In addition to the aforementioned team-level tendencies, we also note the following big picture, history-based system that endorses the UNDER.


Divisional NBA action featuring home teams on two-game UNDER streaks has tended decidedly toward the UNDER in the past.



Generally speaking, division match-ups have exhibited a bias toward lower scores. The UNDER is 52%, for a 2% return on investment since 2004 when teams from the same divisional cluster face off. We think this edge owes to the greater familiarity that results from more frequent meetings, per the typical NBA scheduling mandate. Teams are better prepared to combat divisional opposition's tendencies, as they have seen their tricks before, and have probably committed substantial resources to game-planning.


The greater likelihood of the UNDER cashing in after intra-division games when the host squad is riding a streak of games with disappointing combined scores suggests the existence of a momentum effect (the UNDER has been notably profitable from this spot as long the home team's consecutive UNDERs number at least two, however, two straight UNDERs has been the spot of maximum profitability).


Whatever the reason, this system has delivered a 13% long term return on investment back to 2004 (including an 8-3 stretch so far this year), with only four full seasons with a cover rate south of 50% over this span.


Happy betting!!


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