Season-to-date record: 65-60-2, 52%
Backing Jazz to cover vs. Nets (perhaps) minus all their stars: Utah -8.5
The Utah Jazz boast a stellar 31-11 SU record so far this season, the best in the NBA, and a 27-15 ATS showing so far, the second best record in the League versus the number. However, the Jazz have covered just three of their last ten games, after the convincing, 25-point SU/ATS win at Chicago Monday.
Hosting a short-handed Nets squad appears a prime spot to bet on Utah's normalization, and we are laying the chalk with the Jazz at Salt Lake City's Vivint Arena this evening.
History bears out the value of backing strong teams giving points to road teams from outside the division after tough stretches versus the number.
Home favorites with at least 65% SU win rates have proven quite profitable facing non-division competition and after covering no more than three of their last ten games.
This system has delivered a 10% long-term return on investment (back to 2004), with only four completed seasons with a cover rate below 50%. This approach is a perfect 2-0 versus the number so far this year.
Through the lens of team-level trends, the Nets are solid ATS on the season, in a variety of applicable situations (10-4 ATS as undersogs, 12-9 on the road, 17-12 following a win and 14-4 vs. the West). But Brooklyn is 3-4 in the second of back-to-backs (the Nets narrowly defeated the Blazers in Portland last night).
On the other hand, as Utah's previously referenced, full-season ATS record intimates, the Jazz are likewise adept against the betting line. Utah is 14-4 ATS on their home floor, 25-14 as the favorite, 6-3 with a rest advantage and 16-7 facing the Eastern Conference.
On personnel, Kyrie Irving is slated to miss his second consecutive game while tending to a family matter. Further, James Harden is listed as questionable due to neck soreness, and new addition, Blake Griffin is sidelined for rest. Of course, Kevin Durant and Landry Shamet are still out too. As such, the Nets are likely to be stretched pretty thin Wedneaday, especially at the guard positions.
This observation likely spells trouble for Brooklyn, given the Nets will face a top-ten shooting guard, in Donovan Mitchell.
Happy betting!!