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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

Mar 20th NBA Action: Two Streaking Dogs Worth Considering Saturday

Updated: Mar 21, 2021

Season-to-date record: 57-58-2, 50%

Couple of spots to take points on the road: Hawks +4.5 & Spurs +10

Atlanta is a perfect 7-0 SU in the month of March (5-2 ATS). Trae Young and the Hawks will try their recently established unbeaten patch at Los Angeles Saturday, where the champion Lakers lay in waiting.

The Lakers too are on a winning streak, having rattled off four consecutive SU wins (five in a row ATS). This near-term performance contrasts sharply with the early going in the wake of Anthony Davis' calf strain. After AD last exited the Lakers line-up in mid-February, the Los Angeles went 3-6 SU, before righting the ship more recently.

We are fading the Lakers here, as we observe compelling historical precedent in favor of the road dogs from this position

In matchups between teams from opposing conferences that each won their last three games, fading home favorites has been good for a 14% return on investment since 2004, delivering a cover rate of less than 50% in only three completed seasons over this span.

This system is 3-1 ATS so far this year.

As a potential explanation for the profitability of this system, we submit that recency bias compels the betting public to herd behind home favorites on strong runs. Unbeknownst to Joe Public though, road dogs have exhibited a statistically significant edge in non-conference NBA action, covering at a 51.5% rate. The impact, per our hypothesis, is that streaking home favorites tend to become overvalued versus cross-conference teams with similar momentum.

Regarding team level ATS performance, neither the Hawks nor Lakers appear stellar from this spot, but Atlanta does appear to have a modest edge:

  • The Lakers are 10-12 ATS at their Staples Center this season,

  • LA is 19-18 versus the number when laying chalk,

  • The Lakers are 14-13 ATS off a win,

  • The champs are 5-9 ATS against the East,

  • Atlanta is 10-9-1 ATS off a win,

  • The Hawks are 6-5 taking points on the road,

  • Atlanta is 9-7 versus the betting line against the West

The Spurs +10 at the Bucks Saturday also fits this system. We are taking the points with San Antonio too.

But in addition to the basis presented above for fading the Bucks laying chalk at home, a separate, profitable history-based system, based on backing ATS momentum, likewise suggests the Spurs are the best bet versus the number for this contest.

Teams taking double-digits outside their conference after at least three ATS wins in a row have been good for an 18% long-term return on investment.

This system has seen only four full seasons with a cover rate below 50%, and is 2-1 ATS so far this year.

Moreover, the bulk of the relevant team-level trends we can discern also support the San Antonio cover:

  • Spurs 22-16 ATS,

  • San Antonio 7-3 ATS as road dog,

  • Spurs 10-2 vs the number facing the East,

  • Milwaukee is 19-21 ATS overall,

  • The Bucks are 7-10 ATS against the West,

  • Milwaukee is 12-8 against the spread at home (but 6-5 outside the conference),

  • Bucks 11-5 ATS laying double-digits (4-1 vs the West)

Happy betting!!


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