Mar 20th NBA Action: New-Era System Says Go Low on Warriors @ Grizzlies
Updated: Mar 21, 2021
Season-to-date record: 57-58-2, 50%
Betting on disappointing total score in Memphis: Warriors @ Grizzlies u222.5
Changes to the format of the NBA schedule may have created opportunity for objective bettors. Adaptations the League undertook for the 2020-2021 season include a reduction of the standard 82-game season down to 72 games (with less conference play as a result), perhaps as an offset to the shortened off-season that sapped players of precious recovery.
Additionally, the season schedule was determined and released in two separate halves, to allow the League sufficient flexibility regarding covid-related postponements.
Perhaps most relevant for our purposes though, the NBA instituted what are commonly referred to as "baseball style" series, characterized by two teams facing off on consecutive nights, in the same city.
So far, the second game of the NBA's baseball-style back-to-backs have tended decidedly toward the UNDER, for a 31% return on investment.
We theorize that teams are better prepared defensively when facing the same squads they matched up with yesterday, as the opposition's schemes and predilections are still vivid in their consciousness.
Granted, our 15-game sample is too small to offer the highest conviction support for the long-term profitability of this system, however, thanks to statistical inference, we are confident this new-age system is good for at least slightly better than a 50% cover rate (a 90% confidence interval suggests a minimum 51% win rate).