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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

Mar 1st NBA Action: Philly, off Home Upset to Cavs, to Host Skidding Pacers Squad

Season-to-date record: 42-46-2, 48%

Looking for a resolved Sixers unit to cover the early chalk: Philly 1H -2.5

The Sixers are tied with the Phoenix Suns for the fourth best record in the NBA, after Phoenix beat Minnesota like a drum yesterday and Philly was stunned (as the 11.5 point favorite) by the Cleveland Cavaliers a day earlier. We are betting that the 76ers will come on strong early as hosts to a Pacers team well into an extended road trip, and riding a three-game slide.

Supporting our thinking, we have observed that good favorites off narrow upset losses tend to get off to strong starts in their next game, when facing fairly solid opposition.

Backing favorites that made the last post-season to cover the first half spread just after upset losses by a bucket or less and versus teams that also made the prior playoffs has delivered a 15% long-term return on investment since 2005, including a 4-1 run so far this year.

This system has suffered only four seasons of sub-50% cover rates.

In addition to the historical precedent though, we also know that the Sixers tend toward the fast start naturally, ranking 6th in the League by first half points. The Pacers first half offense, on the other hand, is only mediocre. On the year, Philadelphia averages 59.4 first half points in their Wells Fargo Center, versus 56.1 points for the Pacers on the road. This margin implies the home cover versus the 1H chalk.

Regarding personnel, both Tobias Harris and Joel Embiid are listed as questionable for the Sixers, while Malcolm Brogdan is questionable for Indy (as is Jeremy Lamb). The Action Network expects all three starters to see action.

Happy betting!!

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