Season-to-date record: 52-55-2, 49%
Buying Memphis low / fading Oklahoma City off big loss: Grizzlies -7.5
The Memphis Grizzlies covered three in a row heading into the all-star break, including an ever so slight SU loss to Milwaukee at FedEx Forum just before the pause. So far, Memphis has picked up right where they left off post-resumption, covering easily at home as 3.5-point favorites Wednesday versus the Wizards, and playing the Nuggets to within a point of the straight up win Friday, again on Memphis' home floor.
As is most common from this spot, we are betting the Grizzlies can keep the cover streak alive Sunday even absent the comfort of home.
Road favorites off at least a three-game home stand that culminated in a loss have been good for an irresistible 20% long-term return on investment.
This system has returned a cover rate below 50% in only two seasons since 2004, and is 5-4 ATS so far this year.
In addition to observing historical context that supports Memphis' effort Sunday, we also note that the present position appears a particularly tough one for Oklahoma City.
The Thunder are coming off a game last night where they couldn't buy a bucket, and couldn't stop a proverbial pig in a passage. Most notably, Oklahoma City shot 8-for-32 from deep, and allowed New York to connect on 40% of their longballs. Further the Knicks collected 12 steals-- part of 18 Thunder turnovers on the evening.
Not surprisingly, the outcome of Saturday's competition was a lopsided home loss for OKC. Today's action will mark the last game of a three-game Thunder home stand. Historically, teams off an embarrassing performance just prior to concluding a home series have struggled to beat the number.
Betting against teams playing the last game of at least three straight at home, after a 20+ point loss, has delivered a 17% long-term rate of return.
This system has suffered only two seasons since 2004 with a cover rate below 50%, but is only 4-4 ATS so far this year.
On personnel, as of March 13th, the Action Network reported that Oklahoma City's starting center, Al Horford is listed as doubtful (rest), while starting shooting guard, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and starting power forward, Darius Bazley are questionable.
The Grizzlies are the third best bet in the NBA so far this season, with a 20-14 ATS record. However, the Thunder are also bettable this year, as indicated by OKC's 20-17-1 record versus the number and 9th ranked ATS standing. Team-level, year-to-date trends though appear to align with the idea of Memphis securing the cover Sunday.
Memphis is 9-5 versus the number as the favorite,
The Grizzlies are also 9-5 ATS on the road,
Grind City is 3-1 ATS laying points at FedEx Forum,
Memphis is 6-4 following a loss,
Oklahoma City is also a compelling 12-8-1 off a loss, but
OKC is 7-11-1 versus the chalk at Chesapeake Energy Arena, and
The Thunder are 7-11 ATS as the home dog
Happy betting!!