Mar 12th NBA Action: Last Hoorah for Post-Allstar Strategies
Updated: Mar 21, 2021
Season-to-date record: 52-53-2, 50%
Post-allstar break playbook says take the points with the Pacers
The Lakers are off two consecutive straight up losses heading into the allstar break. At the root of both defeats is uncharacteristically soft defense. Most recently at Sacramento, LA managed better than 126 points per 100 possessions (which is great, versus the League average 112 points), but allowed 127 points per 100 trips up the court to the Kings (which is terrible).
A day earlier, the Lakers mustered a reasonable 111 points per 100 possessions on offense, but gave up 120 to the visiting Suns.
We think it likely the Lakers' struggles continue when LA hosts Indiana Friday, in the the champs' first action since the pause, and we are backing the Pacers for the cover. Consistent with our thinking, we note that the present appears a tough spot for the Lakers, from the purview of historical context.
Teams off extended layoffs tend to not cover in their building facing relatively unfamiliar, playoff-level competition.
Fading home squads in their first game after the allstar break, versus teams from the opposing conference that made the prior playoffs, has been good for a whopping 33% return on investment since 2005, with only three seasons with a cover rate below 50%.
Also fading cracks in Lakers' defense, backing the OVER
We expect the road win versus the number correlates with the OVER, as defensive lapses (resulting in excessive scoring for the opposition) have justified LA's recent losses. History appears aligned with this thinking as well.
In non-conference NBA action featuring a home team on a two-game OVER streak and a quality road team, the OVER has proven the play.
This system has been good for an 8% long-term return on investment with only five seasons since 2005 with a cover rate south of 50%.