Mar 11th NBA Action: Powerful Post-Allstar Break O/U Trend Informs Knicks @ Bucks Bet
Updated: Mar 21, 2021
Season-to-date record: 49-52-2, 49%
Backing the allstar game MVP in the early going: Bucks 1H -6.5
Giannis Antetokuompo put on a display of perfection Sunday, scoring a League record 16 buckets on 16 attempts, for 35 points in the recently held 2021 NBA Allstar game. This performance earned the Bucks' big man his second Allstar MVP title, and helped Team Lebron coast to another win.
We expect Giannis' majesty to persist into Thursday, at least through the first two quarters (perhaps with a little help from his friends). Accordingly we are backing Milwaukee to cover the first half chalk when the Bucks host the Knicks tomorrow.
Supporting our thinking, we note that historically, good teams favored over bad, less familiar opposition have proven EXCEPTIONAL bets versus the first half number, in the debut game after the all-star break.
Favorites in the first action after the mid-season break who appeared in the last playoffs have delivered a ridiculous 46% return on investment since 2005 versus non-division competition that missed the prior post-season.
Quite remarkably, this system has not delivered a single losing season since 2005!
On personnel, New York will be short-handed at the point guard position, as Derrick Rose did not travel with the team due to the NBA's covid protocol, and will miss his third consecutive game for the Knicks. Similarly, Austin Rivers is separated from the team while celebrating the birth of his second son (though Rivers has largely fallen out the rotation since Rose returned to the Big Apple).
The depletion at the 1 spot likely has implications for New York's performance Thursday. The Knicks offense ranks 24th by points per 100 possessions on the season, and 29th by assists per game. With less ball handling competence at their disposal Thursday, we expect New York's offense to struggle even more, perhaps exhibiting a greater vulnerability to turnovers, and relying almost exclusively on one-on-one situations for scoring opportunities.
On the other hand, the Bucks rank fourth by wide open shots attempted and third by effective field goal percentage. Even against the Knicks' top-tier defense, it is likely the combination of crisp ball movement and solid shooting ability will translate to easier buckets for Milwaukee, while it appears probable that New York will labor to manufacture points.