Mar 10th NBA Action: Profitable Post-Allstar Break Trend Guides Wizards @ Grizzlies Bet
Updated: Mar 21, 2021
Season-to-date record: 49-52-2, 49%
Sell-high spot for rested Wizards team, after upset win versus the Clippers: Grizzlies -2
Despite the reluctance of some of the League's premier athletes, the NBA held its annual allstar festivities this past Sunday. Marquee players cited health risks and physical strain (following a stunted offseason) as reasons to cancel the event this year, but the proceedings did not appear objectionable based on the level of engagement players seemed to exhibit throughout. In the end, rightly or not, NBA Allstar Sunday appeared to go off as planned, complete with thrilling moments throughout, .
Regular season NBA action resumes Wednesday, with a condensed, two-game schedule that starts with the Wizards at the Grizzlies. We like Memphis to cover the three points of chalk and are betting accordingly.
Fading underdogs in the first game after extended breaks has proven a solidly profitable strategy in non-conference action.
After fraternizing with other elites, perhaps all-star caliber players return from the break motivated to stand out, either to make a case for or to validate their all-star selection (such players are more likely to play for favored teams). Offensive schemes and propensities are more effective against relatively unfamiliar competition from the other conference.
Whatever the rationale, this system has been good for a 23% return on investment since 2004, with only four seasons of a sub-50% cover rate.
The Wizards are off a narrow home upset win over the Clippers, but have covered four of their last five. The Bucks just barely averted a surprise loss in Memphis before the pause, however the Grizz went 3-0 ATS heading into all-star weekend. Memphis is 5-4 versus the number laying chalk at home this season; the Wizards are 9-6 ATS as road dogs.