Backing the home team with strings attached: Portland +3
This evening's contest at Moda Center reresents a classic split between sharps and squares. As of the time of this writing, about two-thirds of spread wagers on Wolves / Blazers are down on Minnesota, but two-thirds of the dollars wagered ATS are siding with Portland. This observation suggests that bigger, better informed bettors are backing the home team, while Joe Public is betting on the away squad.
History say, if this condition endures, take the points with the Blazers. Back to 2015-16, regular season NBA action featuring dogs supported by at least 60% of ATS dollars staked, but no more than 40% of spread wagers have covered sufficient to deliver a 15% return on investment (statistically significant at about the 85% confidence level).
This system is a meager 2-2 ATS so far this year, but has not registered a season with a cover rate below 50%...which is to say that a rally might be in the offing.
Worth reiterating, this play is conditional. Betting flows are dynamic and subject to change, and we advocate backing Portland versus the number only IF they have attracted a majority of dollars and a minority of betting volume (as defined above) at tip-off. With that said, Sports Insights has indicated 84% confidence that the spread will tighten to from Blazers +3 to +2.5. Thus, taking a stab at Portland now, at +3, might represent a low risk entry (as the opportunity to hedge with Minnesota -2.5 is expected to materialize).
(On personnel, the Wolves' Patrick Beverley is currently listed as questionable.)
Happy betting!!
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