Jan 24, 2022 NBA Action: Chicago Bulls @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Backing a hobbled Chicago: Bulls +1
Big NBA line moves that occur against a backdrop of modest support from the betting public suggest either sharp action (big money or well-respected bettors) or personnel news as the driving forces behind the changes to the betting spread. Either way, we have observed that such extreme motion tends to represent exploitable overreactions by sportsbooks.
Fading teams with the backing or no more than 40% of spread bets and ATS dollars wagered, who have experienced line moves of at least two points their way (meaning their implied probability of winning increased) has delivered a statistically significant 20% return on investment since the 2015-16 season.
In the case of the Bulls at the Thunder Monday, DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic were ruled out late this afternoon, causing the three-point swing that now casts Chicago as ever-so-slight underdogs (Zach LaVine is also listed as questionable).
We're siding with the undermanned Bulls against a Thunder squad that has only been favored at home twice this season (Chicago is 1-1 ATS from this spot).