Season-to-date record: 34-38-1, 47%
Backing Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5 in the Valley of the Sun
The Cavs kick off a five game road trip in Phoenix Monday, after losing three in a row on a four game home stand. We regard the present as a solid spot for the road cover, as extreme changes of scenery can be an elixir for teams floundering on their home floor.
NBA squads riding losing streaks off four game (or longer) home stretches have delivered a 16% return on investment since 2004 versus teams on win streaks from the opposing conference.
This system has experienced only five years since 2004 of a sub-50% cover rate, and is 2-0 ATS so far this season.
We suspect its success owes to the public's recency bias, which compels casual bettors to back teams experiencing near-term success and to shun teams that have struggled lately.