Feb 7, 2022: New York Knicks @ Utah Jazz
Betting on a barn burner in Utah: Knicks / Jazz o218
We are betting on higher than expected aggregate scoring when New York visits Utah Monday evening, in sympathy with sharp action that that has poured in on the OVER.
Bettors have reaped an 11% return on investment related to backing the OVER when the betting total moves at least a point higher and the percentage of dollars on the OVER is more than 10% greater than OVER wagers as a percentage of all totals bets.
As a testament to smart money's ability to suss out underpriced total lines, this angle has never finished a season with a cover rate below 50% (back to 2015-16). This system is 18-12 so far this year.
Worth reiterating, this wager is conditioned on the percentage of dollars on the OVER meaningfully exceeding the percent of OVER bets by volume. Currently this differential is 18% (with about 40 minutes until tip off). We expect this criteria will hold, so we are confident publishing this pick.
The total opened at 213.5 last night and sharps pretty immediately began hammering the level higher (Sports Insights recorded five steam moves on the OVER before 6am today). As a result, the number was bid up as high as 220.5 by late morning, before calming on the news of the Knicks' Kemba Walker's absence. New York's Quentin Grimes' planned absence was announced later in the day.
There are no developments today regarding Jazz personnel.