Fading a tired Chicago squad Monday: Phoenix -8
Since the Bulls kicked off a two-game road trip on February 3rd, Chicago visited Toronto and Indiana in back-to-backs contests, enjoyed a single night off, hosted Philly yesterday, and is looking forward to a call from Phoenix this afternoon. This whirlwind schedule does not bode well for the Bulls' effort to cover Monday's spread, per our reading of history. We are fading Chicago here.
In regular season NBA play, betting against home dogs (ATS) that have played three games in the last four nights has amassed a statistically significant 17% return on investment back to the 2004-05 season.
In addition to a strong total long-term return, this simple system has proven to be quite consistently profitable, delivering a cover rate below 50% in only two of the last 16 completed seasons.
Separately, we note the following team-level trends in effect this season, which are largely consistent with our expectation for the Suns cover:
Phoenix is 16-9 ATS on the road (13-7 versus the number as road favorites),
The Suns are 11-8 versus the number against the Eastern Conference,
The Bulls are a League leading 17-9 ATS at United Center, but only 3-3 as home dogs.
Chicago's second-leading scorer, Zach LaVine, currently appears on the injury list as questionable.
The spread for this game has widened from the opening level of Phoenix -5.5/-6 to the present -8. Driving movement in the line, the Suns are supported by 59% of spread bets and 84% of dollars wagered ATS, accordingly to Sports Insights.
Happy betting!!