Looks like another tough spot for the Wizards: Heat -6
We faded the Washington Saturday and cashed on their 15-point loss versus Phoenix Saturday, and we are still on the anti-Wizards bandwagon today. Heading into this second game of a five-game home stand, Washington is 24-28 straight up and an even worse 20-31-1 versus the number (after a 1-7 SU/ATS stretch most recently). In NBA action Monday, the Wizards will host Miami, who is 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS in their last eight. Our reading of history suggests the Heat, currently slated as six-point favorites, are most likely to deliver the cover. We are backing Miami -6.
In regular season competition between teams that both made the prior postseason, fading home dogs with no better than 20% SU/ATS win rates over their last five games has been good for a 15% ROI since 2005-06, including a 12-7 ATS run so far this season.
Regarding personnel, the Wizards' Bradley Beal is out with a sprained ligament in his wrist, after missing the last three games for Washington, while the Heat's Jimmy Butler is listed as questionable with a toe injury.
But despite the uncertainty surrounding Butler's availability, the spread has moved Miami's way from an opening level of -4 to the current -6, according to Sports Insights, though ATS dollars on this game being split 50-50.
Happy betting!!