Fading a feckless Magic squad: Celtics -9.5 (-115)
The Magic's 12-42 straight up record is the worst in the NBA. We do not expect much improvement over the final third of the season...
History says fade home dogs with less than a 50% win rate through the first two-thirds of the season against Conference opposition with a 48% or better win rate.
Wagering per this set of criteria has been good for a hypothetical 14% return on investment since the 2004-05 NBA season, with only two seasons witha sub-50% cover rate.
The rationale for this system, developed by analysts at Sports Insights, is that the worst teams are disincentivized to win down the home stretch, as poorer squads have historically enjoyed a higher probability of landing the top pick in the following draft lottery.
But the NBA revamped the draft lottery rules, effective in 2019, to address the so-called 'tanking' phenomenon. Still, this system finished 7-4-1 ATS in the 2019-20 season and 8-8 versus the number last year. The lack of notable decline in profitability suggests that all tanking is not intentional -- in some instances, teams simply don't have the ability to compete with higher quality organizations, which tend to round into form ahead of playoff seedings.
Accordingly, Sunday we backing the Celtics, who are indeed harboring postseason ambitions (Boston occupies the number eight spot in the East currently, which would qualify for a Play-In Tournament berth -- Boston would need to ascend to the number six spot to secure a seat at the playoff table at the end of regular season action).
Happy betting!!