Season-to-date record: 40-45-2, 47%
Betting Houston's woes continue Sunday: Memphis -2.5
The Houston Rockets have dropped ten in a row straight up, and are only a nominally better 1-9 ATS over this stretch. This stint of inefficacy has dropped the Rockets to worst in the NBA versus the number, and fourth-worst straight up.
We are betting the tough times persist Sunday, as floundering teams in this spot tend to continue to struggle.
Fading home dogs that saw the prior post-season and that have won and covered no more than one of their last five games have been good for a 15% long-term return on investment versus opposition that also made a playoff appearance last year.
We hypothesize that the fall from playoff caliber squad to severe skidder in less than a season's time indicates a serious problem -- such as the rebuilding Houston must undertake after the departure of revolutionary guard, James Harden. Contender-level opposition tends to expose teams in this position, particularly on the struggling team's home floor, where such teams are more likely to be overvalued.
Whatever the reason though, consistent with the 59% long-term cover rate, this system is 3-2 ATS this year, and has amassed only five sub-50% seasons since 2005.
Regarding personnel, the Rockets will have to manage without Victor Oladipo Sunday, the 11th ranked shooting guard in the League, due to a quad injury.
Grizzlies starting two guard, Grayson Allen, will also be inactive, as will Memphis reserve forward, Justise Winslow.
Happy betting!!