Season-to-date record: 40-45-2, 47%
Big home dog represents opportunity: Minnesota Timberwolves +11
Objective power rankings systems suggests the Phoenix Suns might struggle versus the number at the Timberwolves Sunday afternoon. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight makes the Suns seven points better than the Wolves, ESPN's Basketball Power Index gives the Suns a 10.5 point edge, and the Action Network framework gives the road team about a nine point advantage Sunday. Each of these estimates falls below the 11 points of chalk Suns backer must lay this afternoon.
Supporting the quantitative case for value with Minnesota versus Phoenix, we note that big dogs at home have tended to deliver the cover historically, particularly when the worst teams in the League face the best.
NBA home teams with no better than 25% win rates, taking double-digits from teams with at least 60% win rates have been good for a 12% return on investment since 2004, with only four seasons below 50% on record over this span.
This system is 2-1 ATS this season.
Happy betting!!