Season-to-date record: 39-43-2, 48%
The Nuggets should have something to prove at OKC: Denver 1H -3.5
The Thunder (14-19) will take seven points at home versus the Nuggets Saturday, despite an impressive two-game underdog win/cover streak -- complete with Lu Dort highlights.
We are fading Oklahoma City's recent success as we expect Denver (17-15) will get off to a fast start after suffering an upset loss to the Wizards two nights ago. While our conviction about how the Nuggets might finish is less then the utmost, we are comfortable betting on the road team for the first half cover.
Supporting our thinking, we first note that Denver is the second most productive team in the League by first half points scored -- good for about 60 per first two quarters, both at home and on the road. Contrarily, the Thunder's pretty consistent 54 points per first half is good for 28th in the Association.
The six point average first half differential between these teams meaningfully exceeds the 3.5 points of first half chalk and suggests quantitative value with Denver against the first half number.
Additionally, we cite empirical evidence that good teams off surprise losses do in fact to hone in mentally for their next out and deliver the first half cover, particularly versus solid competition.
Favorites that made the last playoffs have proven great first half bets off upset losses by a bucket or less and versus opposition that also appeared in the previous post-season.
This system is 2-1 ATS so far this season and 120-81-6 (60%) since 2005, for a 15% long-term cover rate.
Happy betting!!
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