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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

Feb 2, 2022 NBA Action: Washington Wizards @ Philadelphia 76ers

Taking the points with the lowly Wizards: Washington +10.5

Washington currently sits dead last in the NBA's Southeast Division, ranks 12th in the Eastern Conference and has dropped six in a row (SU/ATS)...and we are taking the Wizards plus the points for the road cover, versus the mighty Joel Embiid and company Wednesday, as history hints that its time for this blind squirrel to find a nut.

Supporting our stance, we note that road teams that made the prior playoffs and that are taking double-digits following an underdog loss ATS have proven great bets versus teams off ATS wins.

This angle has delivered a 22% return on investment since 2005-06 (statistically significant at the 95% confidence level), with only two years with a cover rate below 50%. This system is an unsullied 2-0 versus the number so far this season.

But in addition to the history-based rationale for backing the Wizards from this position, we have also observed a basis for betting against the Sixers following Tuesday's three-point win over Memphis, despite Philly taking 3.5 points.

Home teams off narrow underdog wins have proven solid fades facing teams outside their division that made an appearance in the previous postseason.

This latter system has also proven remarkably consistent, delivering a 12% long-term ROI, including the 8-6 ATS record so far this year, with sub-50% cover rates in a mere two seasons since 2005-06.

Worth noting, as of the time of this writing, 98% of dollars wagered against the spread on this contest are supporting the 76ers cover (per bets tracked by Sports Insights), so the line may well widen from the present 10.5 by tipoff. Patience may prove a virtue in backing the Wizards today.

Happy betting!!


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