Feb 2, 2022 NBA Action: Memphis Grizzlies @ New York Knicks
Updated: Feb 3, 2022
Betting on Memphis rebound after narrow loss in Philly: Grizzlies -4
Coming off a tough overtime loss as 3.5 point favorites in Philadelphia yesterday, we like the Grizzlies to cover the chalk Wednesday (Memphis is slated as four-point favorites at Julius Randle's New York Knicks).
Consistent with this expectation, we have observed that in regular season competition between teams that both participated in the prior playoffs, backing favorites off upset losses by a bucket or less has delivered a 15% return on investment back to 2005-06.
This angle has submitted only four seasons with a cover rate south of 50%, and is 7-6 ATS so far this year.
Further, the ATS record for quality favorites off unexpected losses is 22-12 when they face quality opposition the very next day.
But betting flows too currently convey an edge for Memphis. In recent years (the span for which data is available), underdogs that were favored in their last game and for whom the difference between the percent of ATS dollars attracted is at least 30% more than the percent of ATS bets have proven great fades versus teams with at least 55% SU win rates.
Betting against teams in this spot has been good for a 16% ROI since 2015-16.
(After laying seven versus the Kings Monday, the Knicks are taking 52% of dollars wagered ATS for Wednesday's action, despite being supported by only 15% of spread bets; the Grizzlies are 35-18 on the year for a 66% SU win rate.)