Fading one of the most bettor-friendly teams in NBA: Spurs -8.5 (-105)
The Thunder's 35-19-3 ATS record so far this season is second only to the Memphis Grizzlies. Oklahoma City is a similarly impressive 34-18-3 versus the number as an underdog and 14-8-3 taking points at their Paycom Center. Thus, it has not paid to bet against OKC. Yet we are doing precisely that, as we expect Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the crew are in a tough position to deliver the cover Wednesday, following a four point road win over the Knicks two days prior, from the position of ten point underdogs.
Home teams off narrow upsets have proven solid fades facing teams from different divisions that made the prior playoffs.
This system has delivered a statistically significant 13% long-term return on investment, including an 11-7 ATS run so far this year. Further, this angle has suffered cover rates below 50% in only two seasons since 2005-06.
Also worth mentioning, when the home team's cover rate is at least 60%, as is the case for the Thunder, adhering to this set of criteria has been even more profitable, submitting a 22% ROI on a 43-26 ATS record.
But in addition to the case for fading Oklahoma City, the Spurs laying chalk on the fifth of an eight game road trip likewise bodes well for San Antonio's cause.
Backing favorites on at least four game road trips versus teams off road wins has delivered strong profits in the past.
This second system has been good for a 16% ROI since 2004-05 (statistically significant at better than the 90% confidence level), with only one sub-50% cover rate season and a 1-0-1 ATS record so far this year.