Going back to the well with the biggest underdogs: Pistons +12.5 and Rockets +15.5
We laid out a history-based rationale for backing the biggest underdogs on Tuesday's NBA lineup. Both cashed in. We detail herein a different basis that compels us to take ATS flyers on the Pistons at the Celtics and Rockets at the Suns Wednesday, two of three double-digit dogs on the 11-game slate.
The Detroit Pistons are 12-45 on the year, after dropping eight straight. Before their nine-point Valentine's Day home loss to Washington, Detroit was defeated by more than 20 points in consecutive games (versus the Grizzlies and at the Mavericks).
Also among the bottom of the NBA barrel, the 15-41 Houston Rockets have dropped five straight after suffering a 34-point loss at Utah and losing by 19 versus Toronto.
We theorize that disappointing play to this extreme compels bookmakers to shade betting lines for favorites facing bad teams, creating opportunity for objective (and intrepid) bettors. History validates this thinking:
Backing teams that made the prior playoffs and that are taking double-digits from Conference foes after losing their last three by an average of at least 18.5 has proven an extremely profitable endeavor.
Squads is this position have delivered a 26% return on investment since 2005-06, with only one season with a sub-50% cover rate. This system is 4-0 ATS so far this year.
Accordingly, we are taking the points with the lowly Pistons and Rockets Wednesday.
Happy betting!!
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