Backing the road dogs: Knicks +3.5
After the dust has settled on the day's NFL proceedings and the Superbowl LV matchup has been determined, those longing for a bit more action on the day might consider the New York Knickerbockers plus the 3.5 as a nightcap to an action-packed weekend.
New York is 3-1 SU/ATS most recently and will be looking to bounce back after failing to beat the number as 3.5 point dogs at Sacramento Friday. On the other hand, the Blazers are trying to adjust after the loss of the #7 ranked shooting guard in the League, by ESPN's Real Plus-Minus statistic. In their first game without their prolific guard, Portland got hammered by 21 points, as ever so slight dogs, by San Antonio.
With McCollum, Portland boasted a high-powered offense and a bottom-of-the-barrel defense so far in the 2020-21 season. In the one-game sample that Portland's number two option has been inactive, the Blazers are worse on both ends of the floor. The Blazers' offense mustered 115 points per 100 possessions on the year, but produced little more than 106 in the loss to the Spurs. Similarly, the Rose City crew's porous defense allowed an average of about 110 points per 100 possessions on the season, but 129 without McCollum last Monday.
History suggests bettors should not expect an immediate reprieve versus the number for Logo Lillard and the hobbled Trail Blazers, as teams off significant losses in the midst of home stands have proven solid fades ATS.
With a mere three sub-50% ATS seasons since 2004, the simple system of betting against home teams off 20-25 point home losses has delivered a 12% long-term return on investment, including a 5-3 run this year.
Perhaps bettors herd behind the idea that playing in their own building offers a solid opportunity for teams to right-foot themselves after embarrassments. Whatever the reason, this spot has proven consistently profitable, and we are heeding the call to action Sunday, of course, after football, that is.
Happy betting!!