April 28th NBA Action: Big Win Should Put Sixers Back on Right Foot
Season-to-date record: 83-75-3, 53%
Expect Philly to build on blowout vs. Thunder Monday: Sixers -8
Philly handed OKC a 31-point drubbing Monday, however, this emphatic win came only after a sequence of losses, to the Warriors, Suns and the Bucks x 2. History suggests the big win two days ago sets the stage for a follow-on win/cover this afternoon, when the 76ers will host Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks. Accordingly, we are laying the eight and siding with the home team to beat the number.
Single-digit favorites that made the prior playoffs have proven great ATS picks off double-digit wins that follow at least three straight losses.
We hypothesize that even good teams are subject to lulls over the course of the grueling NBA season. Quality teams tend to break out of their funks in dramatic fashion though, and decisive wins tend to mark the kickoffs for such resurgences.
This simple system has delivered a statistically significant 25% long-term return, including only two losing seasons since 2005 and a 7-4 ATS run so far this year.
Through a more fundamental lens, ESPN's Basketball Power Index likewise makes the case for the home cover, estimating that the Sixers are more than 12 points better than the Thunder before considering the impact of home court advantage.
Team-level tends indicate both the Hawks and Sixers are solid bets this season, however the Hawks have demonstrated vulnerability versus the best teams.
Philly is 31-27-3 ATS this season,
Including a 25-19-2 tally as the favorite,
The Sixers are 17-13 versus the number at their Wells Fargo Center,
The Hawks are 7-3 ATS in head-to-head meetings with the Sixers, back to 2018,
Atlanta is 34-27-1 versus the number overall this year,
The Hawks are 15-12 after defeat, but 8-4 following double-digit losses,
Atlanta is 7-11 ATS against teams with at least 60% win rates (and 5-9 versus the betting line taking points from these teams)
On personnel, Trae Young will not go Wednesday, and Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kevin Huerter and Brandon Goodwin are all questionable. Bogdonovic is a top-15 talent at his position, per ESPN's RPM, and is the fourth most important player on the team, by usage rate, according to CleaningTheGlass.com. We expect Bogdonovic would be sorely missed is he is ruled out. To this point, of the 1,139 possessions this season when both Young and Bogdonovic were off the court for Atlanta, the Hawks were outscored by 9.9 points per 100 possessions.
For Philly, second string PF, Mike Scott, is listed as day-to-day.