April 25th NBA Action: Backing Pacers vs. Magic Sunday
Updated: Apr 28, 2021
Season-to-date record: 80-74-2, 52%
Betting Pacers win streak ports to Orlando to extend Magic's skid: Pacers -5.5
We like the Pacers for the win/cover Sunday. Rationalizing our expectation for the Pacers to beat the number, we note that in matchups between two formerly solid teams struggling versus the number, siding with away favorites has proven solidly profitable historically.
In NBA action featuring teams that both appeared in the previous post-season but that covered no more then one of their last five games, fading the home dogs has been good for a 16% return on investment since 2004.
This system is a solidly profitable 9-5 ATS so far this season.
Fundamentally, ESPN's Basketball Power Index gives the Pacers a 7.5 point edge Sunday on a neutral court. This figure probably should be adjusted down somewhat to account for the 20% capacity expected at Orlando's Amway Center, but probably still estimates a modest edge for the Pacers cover after factoring in location.
Team-level tends this season are, at best, a mixed bag. The Pacers, particularly, have been terrible bets this year overall, but this contest might represent one of few spots where Indiana sports an environmental advantage:
The Pacers 24-35 ATS record is good for third-worst in the NBA,
Indiana 11-16 ATS following wins,
The Pacers are 7-6 ATS laying chalk on the road,
Indiana is the League-worst 11-22 versus the number facing the Eastern Conference,
The Pacers are 8-5 ATS in the second of back-to-backs,
Indy is 6-1 ATS against teams with no better than 30% win rates,
The Magic are 28-30-1 ATS overall,
Orlando is 10-13-1 vs the number taking points at Amway Center,
The Magic 18-21-1 ATS after losses,
Orlando is 17-15-1 ATS versus the East,
The Magic is 10-16-1 ATS versus teams with losing records
On personnel, the Action Network lists indiana's Domantas Sabonis as doubtful Sunday--the Pacers big has missed the last three. And, of course, TJ Warren and Myles Turner are done for the year.
For Orlando the starters appear on the injury report for Sunday. Terrence Ross (SG), James Ennis (SF) and Wendell Clark, Jr. (C) are all listed as questionable.