April 25th NBA Action: Backing Blazers at Home vs. Grizzlies
Updated: Apr 28, 2021
Season-to-date record: 80-74-2, 52%
Down on Dame Dolla & company after the disappointing loss: Blazers 1H -2
The Trail Blazers have dropped four in a row straight up. You might even say Portland's heart has been broken (repeatedly) of late, as the Blazers lost winnable games--Portland's last three losses, to the Clippers, Nuggets and Grizzlies, came by a combined margin of five points.
Of these recent trials, the loss to Memphis is arguably the biggest disappointment, as Portland was expected to emerge the victor Friday (the Blazers were set as for-point favorites). History hints that backing Portland for the rebound cover is the shrewd play in the do-over with Memphis Sunday, at least for the early going. We are wagering accordingly.
As a basis for our position, we note that quality favorites have proven great first half bets in the past after narrow upset losses and against solid opposition:
Teams that 1) earned berths in the prior playoffs, 2) are coming off surprise losses by no more than a bucket and 3) are favored over opposition that likewise appeared in the last post-season have proven solidly profitable first half bets.
Backing teams from this position has been good for a highly statistically significant 16% return on investment since 2005, including a superlative 6-1 ATS run this year-to-date.
From a slightly different angle, supporting teams on protracted home stands after surprise losses and versus solid competition has likewise generated strong long-term profits.
Teams playing at least their fourth straight at home after unexpected losses have accrued a 19% long-term return on investment facing squads that saw the previous post-season.
This system is a mediocre 8-8 versus the number so far this season, but has suffered only two years with a cover rate below 50% since 2005. Thus the past implies a profitability is likely over the remainder of the season.
Consistent with these broad tendencies, the Blazers are 15-9-2 ATS 1H this season after a loss, including a 9-5-2 run as the favorite.
On personnel, the Grizzlies' primary Center, Jonas Valanciunas, is listed as questionable, while starting PF, Jaren Jackson has been ruled out. For the Blazers, starting SF, Derrick Jones, Jr., is also questionable.