April 24th NBA Action: Betting on Defense in Utah Saturday
Expect Utah's defense to check Minnesota's offense: Jazz / Wolves u230.5
The Jazz have held both of their last two opponents, the Rockets and Lakers, below 100 points of offense, resulting in paydays for UNDER backers. Utah will host fellow Southwest Division constituent, the Minnesota Timberwolves, Saturday in the first of consecutive meetings over a three-day span.
History says bet on disappointingly low scores with Utah yet again. We are positioning accordingly.
Division action featuring a home team on at least two-game UNDER streaks has tended decidedly toward the UNDER historically.
This system has been good for a statistically significant 10% long-term return on investment, including a (nominally profitable) 16-14-1 run so far this season.
Historical profitability is dramatically higher though against the highest totals (such as this evening's 230.5 line).
The UNDER is 21-6 in divisional NBA play featuring a home team with two (or more) straight UNDERs when the total closes at 230 or higher.
Finally, we note that while Minnesota has proven OVER-prone in a variety of seemingly applicable situations this season, the Wolves O/U is 4-7 versus teams allowing no more than 108 points per 100 possessions (the Jazz have given up 105 points per 100 possessions, for fourth in the League by this measure of defensive efficiency).