Betting Knicks win/cover streak persists: New York PICK
The 33-27 New York Knicks have strung together sequences of eight consecutive wins and 11 covers in a row. We expect this momentum bodes well for New York's effort as hosts to a divisional foe, the Toronto Raptors, Saturday.
But the 25-34 Raptors are also streaking. Toronto secured straight up wins and covers in each of their last four games. However, after adjusting for competition, the Canadians run is not particularly impressive. The Spurs, Magic and Thunder were 3-18 combined in the seven games leading up to recent encounters with the the dinos, and Toronto caught Brooklyn absent James Harden and Kevin Durant.
We expect the better team to collect the ATS win Saturday and are betting accordingly. History seems to corroborate our thinking, as teams on protracted cover streaks tend to continue to collect ATS wins.
Squads that beat the number in each of at least their last nine games are 34-20-3 ATS (63%) in thier next out.
Despite a small sample, this very simple system has delivered a highly statistically significant 22% return on investment since 2004, including a 4-1 ATS run this year.
At odds with our pick for this contest though, the sharper action appears to be with the Raptors. Sports Insights reports a series of reverse line movements and steam moves in Toronto's support. This action on the road team has so far pressured the spread from New York -3.5 yesterday to PICK at 5Dimes, as of the time of this writing, in spite of the home team taking a reported 61% of ATS bets by volume and 71% of dollars wagered against the number.
Thus, bettors inclined to back the better team, on the bigger streak, might be best served to wait until just before tip-off.
In terms of team-level trends evident this season, the Knicks boast a decided advantage:
New York's 38-21-1 ATS record is the best in the NBA,
Toronto's record versus the number is seventh worst in the League,
The Knicks are 6-3 ATS vs the Atlantic,
Toronto is 5-5 ATS in the division,
New York is 19-10 ATS at Madison Square Garden,
The Raptors are 12-17 away from TD Ameritrade Center
The Knicks are 5-1 ATS after two or three days off,
A tested Toronto is 2-6 ATS
On personnel, the Raptors will have to manage without starting center, Chris Boucher.
Happy betting!!