April 18th NBA Action: Backing Flailing Thunder at Raptors Sunday
Updated: Apr 28, 2021
Season-to-date record: 76-74-2, 51%
Selling Toronto at height of expectation: Oklahoma City +10.5
Raptors backers will lay double-digits Sunday for only the second time this season, when Toronto hosts OKC this afternoon. In the prior instance, in mid-January, the Raptors managed to just edge past Charlotte, winning by three, despite being slated as 10-point favorites.
We think the bloated spread Sunday again constitutes an overreaction, driven by a combination of Oklahoma City's dramatic nine-game slide and Toronto's newly found footing (after dropping four out of their previous five, the Raptors rattled off consecutive wins most recently). Accordingly, we are taking the points with the Thunder Sunday.
Supporting our take, history validates the idea that the present appears a solid opportunity to take a stab at the lowly road dog cover:
Backing traveling teams taking digits after underdog ATS losses from squads that covered their last game has proven quite profitable over the long-term.
This system has delivered an 11% long-term return, suffered only two seasons of sub-50% cover rates since 2004 and is 11-4 ATS so far this year.
Relatedly, we note that this system's cover rate is very similar when we focus only on big road dogs off underdog non-covers on extended SU skids, facing squads that beat the number last out.
Teams on 7-11 game losing streaks are 27-19 (59%) ATS from this position.