The Bucks are favored by 4.5 Monday at the Portland Trail Blazers, after four straight wins at Milwaukee's Fiserv Forum (2-2 ATS). History suggests this situation represents a solid spot to back the road cover. We are betting accordingly.

(Personnel notes: For the Bucks, Giannis is listed as probable, as is Gary Payton II and Drew Eubanks for the Blazers.)

The system described in the above graphic has proven good for a 15% long-term return on investment, which proved statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.

We suspect this angle's success owes to teams' resolve to get off to a solid start after basking in the comforts of home for a time. Facing inferior competition aids this effort, we suppose.

Happy betting!!