Brooklyn's game 1 success looks repeatable: Nets -9 versus Celtics
With the NBA playoffs upon us, legendary gambler, Tony Salinas' Zig-Zag Theory is likely to garner more than a couple of headlines. Salinas developed the heuristic to offer guidance handicapping NBA playoff action. Most commonly, the approach is cited in the context of backing the team that lost game 1 straight up to cover game 2 (and so on, hence the zig-zag). But this common interpretation is not quite right.
Per Salinas, the Zig-Zag Theory entails siding with the home cover in series openers, as peak crowd intensity is thought to lift home squads early, and road teams, who would regard splitting the first two away games a moral victory, tend to pack it in in the interest of living again to fight another day if they fall significantly behind early.
If the home team wins, the theory goes on, back the road team to cover the next contest, as the home team might be inclined to take their foot off the gas a bit having the first straight up win under their belt.
As hosts to the Boston Celtics Saturday for the NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference two-seven opener, the star-studded Brooklyn Nets indeed delivered the win and cover. However, in the face of the admonition of a storied handicapper, we are backing the Nets for the ATS win again Tuesday.
Brooklyn shot well from mid-range and managed to bait Boston into committing a lot of fouls. These outcomes are entirely consistent with the identity Brooklyn forged over the regular season, as the Nets finished the year 2nd in the League by mid-range accuracy and 5th by free throw rate.
Uncharacteristically though, Brooklyn, the most efficient offense in the NBA last season, mustered an effective field goal rate of 46%, a far cry from the 58% Nets fans had become accustomed to--the big three shot 26-58 (45%) Saturday.
Further, and at odds with the stellar sharpshooting demonstrated throughout the year, the second-most accurate team in the League from distance (excluding prayers) connected on less than 24% of longball attempts in game 1. The trio of James Harden, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant recorded a dismal 5-24 (21%) from beyond the arc.
In summary, Brooklyn performed inline by some metrics and below average by others...and still won by double-digits, covering the spread with points to spare! This observation does not bode well for Boston we suspect, as we perceive more room for Brooklyn to improve on offense Tuesday than for the Celtics.
As empirical validation for the notion that the Nets' are likely to collect their second consecutive post-season cover, note that home favorites that accrued ATS wins on poor shooting performances have been solid playoffs bets in their next out.
Teams laying chalk in their building, after shooting no better than 47% from the field and still collecting the cover by at least a bucket, also tend to cover their next game...
This system has delivered a 13% ROI since 2005, with only four seasons with a cover rate below 50% (however, this set of criteria is 1-2 ATS so far this year). We expect its consistent success owes to the ability of quality competitors at the highest level to redouble their mental efforts, following a particularly bad showing.
Separately, the Nets rattled off a five-game win streak to close out the regular season, before beating the Celtics a few days ago. History suggests this sequence too is consistent with the home favorite securing the cover (again). We have found the combination of quality and momentum to be instructive in handicapping NBA playoff action.
In post-season meetings between teams that both made an appearance in last year's playoffs, backing favorites on at least three-game winning streaks has proven solidly profitable historically...
This angle has delivered a 17% return on investment back to 2005 (including a 1-0 ATS run so far this year), with only five full-year instances of a cover rate below 50%.
The Celtics offensive struggles in game 1 owed to difficulty getting to and converting at the rim (Boston shot 13-23 at the basket Wednesday). We see some room for reversion here though, given the magnitude of the Celtic's deviation from normal, as established throughout the regular season. As such, we would not be surprised to see more robust (and more fruitful) efforts from the green and white around the Celtics' rim this afternoon. However, we must also note that the Nets are stout defenders at the cup, so even if Boston's fares better in game 2 than they did in game 1 in this facet of the game, we are looking for the Celtics to exhibit less efficiency shooting the shortest shots versus the tendency on display during the regular season.
Happy betting!!