Backing the Nets (minus Kyrie, presumably plus Harden) off the loss: Brooklyn +3 -125

The latest news is that James Harden will play in the fifth installment of the second round series between the Bucks and Nets Tuesday, barring a setback in warmups.

The path of the betting spread in recent hours reflects the increasing likelihood that Harden will go this evening, after not seeing action since going down in game 1 with a hamstring injury.

We think the Beard's return gives Brooklyn the edge versus the number Tuesday, and we are betting accordingly.

Supporting our thinking, in the limited sample of 215 regular season possessions with KD and Harden both on the floor and Kyrie off, Brooklyn outscored opponents by almost 20 points per 100 possessions. This differential for the Bucks was less then six points.

Historical context too argues for the Brooklyn cover Tuesday, as the best playoff teams tend to recover after being stunned.

The top-two playoff seeds have proven strong bets taking points at home following upset post-season losses...

This simple history-based system has been good for a 16% long-term return.

Happy betting!!