2021 NBA Playoff Action: Another Shootout in Sixers vs. Hawks, Game 2?
Going back to the well: Hawks @ 76ers o223
In game 1 of the Hawks Sixers series we enthusiastically endorsed the OVER, given the strong penchant for combined scores to exceed the betting total early in second round playoff action featuring visiting teams new to the post-season. The Hawks opened with a 42 point first quarter, and the OVER was never in question.
As support for higher than expected scoring two days ago, we noted that the average total for the three regular season meetings this year between Atlanta and Philly was 220, strikingly similar to the 219.5 closing line Sunday, despite average offensive output increasing notably in the post-season. We surmised (correctly, as it were) that Sunday's total was too low.
Bookmakers responded to the 32-point cover margin for the OVER in game 1 by hiking the opening game 2 line to 223. The public though is loading up on the UNDER (again!), as 75% of O/U dollars tracked by Sports Insights are aligned with the prospect of a disappointingly low aggregate score, as of time of this writing
As was the case two days ago, history indicates the public is looking the wrong way.
The same system that highlighed the OVER Sunday calls for a repeat Tuesday. We are positioning accordingly.
The OVER is 13-6 since 2004 in Conference Semifinal game 2's featuring away teams that lack recent playoff experience.