Betting Sixers assert themselves after game 1 upset: Philadelphia -4.5
Game 1 of the NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals indeed turned out to be the shootout that we anticipated. Atlanta and Philly posted 118 and 121 points per 100 possessions respectively Sunday, well north of the NBA post-season average of around 113.
In the end, Atlanta staved off a late surge by Philadelphia to secure the cover and straight up win.
We expect the Sixers' to bounce back Tuesday, and are backing Philly for the ATS win as moderate favorites.
Consistent with our thinking, we note that top post-season seeds indeed tend to recover following upset losses...
Backing teams ranked #1 or #2 in the playoffs, following surprise losses, has delivered a 16% long-term return on investment since 2004-05...
This system is a perfect 3-0 versus the number so far this season.
Honing in, game 2 of the Conference Semis, in particular, has represented a great spot to bet on recovery ATS wins in the past.
Home teams that dropped the second round opener have been demonstrated to be STELLAR bets in game 2...
The 72% cover rate for this system proved statistically significantly different (higher) than the 52.4% win rate required to breakeven at the standard vigorish. Consistently, this system delivered full-year ATS win rates south of 50% just twice since 2005-06.
Separately, as another modest positive for Philly Tuesday, Ken Mauer, Scott Foster and Tony Brothers drew the assignment for Hawks / Sixers game 2. This season, these officials have exhibited a modest bias toward favorites. Chalk-layers covered at a 53.3% clip on these refs' combined watch, including a 10-6 ATS post-season run (for context, favorites amassed a 51.3% cover rate over the whole year, but are an eye-popping 32-20 ATS so far in the playoffs).
On personnel, Joel Embiid is listed as questionable, as is Atlanta's De'Andre Hunter.
Happy betting!!
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