Don't expect Atlanta to display killer instinct Wednesday: New York -1.5
On the heels of spectacular play of Trae Young, the Atlanta Hawks have the New York Knicks reeling. But Atlanta is younger than the average NBA team (read less experienced), and the Hawks largely lack post-season experience (27 year old Clint Capela appears to be the voice of experience for Atlanta's current post-season trial; Capela is a defensive-oriented Center, in his 7th year in the League, whose playoff experience essentially owes to having his horse hitched to James Harden's wagon in Houston).
We hypothesize that teams that have not recently experienced the heightened physical effort and increased mental fortitude that typically attends the NBA post-season, generally do not have the wherewithal to put teams away when they have them on the ropes. We highlight below environmental context that appears consistent with our thesis that the home team will get the nod ATS when the dust settles at MSG this afternoon.
Fading underdogs that missed the prior playoffs but rattled off two or more consecutive post-season wins has proven VERY profitable historically...
This angle has delivered a statistically significant 32% return on investment back to 2004-05, with only two seasons with a cover rate below 50%. This system is 3-1 ATS so far this year.
The Hawks failed to qualify for each of the prior three playoff campaigns, before earning the five seed this season. So far Atlanta has made the most of its opportunity, stealing game 1 in New York and rattling off two straight at home. As such, a play on the Knicks' cover is triggered per this system.
Separately, we have observed that playoff game 5 covers tends toward teams that are down in the series...
Since 2004, squads are 55-45 ATS (55%) in playoff game 5's, after dropping three of the first four,
In first round matchups, teams down in the series are an even more profitable 31-23 ATS (57%) in game 5's, and
Favorites that are down in post-season series are 18-12-1 (59%) overall in game 5's, and 11-6-1 ATS (65%) in the first round
Finally, the crew of NBA officials assigned to administer Wednesday's action in New York also fits with the idea the Knicks can collect the ATS win. When Brian Forte, Courtney Fitzgerald or Kane Kirkland donned the whistles, favorites tended to collect the ATS win.
Blindly backing favorites when these referees were on the case delivered a 12% return on investment this season, including a torrid 6-2 ATS run so far in these playoffs.
Happy betting!!