2021-22 NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Finals, Game 3
Betting on Dallas to come out swinging Sunday: Mavs 1H -3
The Golden State Warriors won and covered both of the two Western Conference Finals games at Chase Center, as moderate favorites.
Now the Mavs will be laying the slight chalk when the action moves to American Airlines Center for game 3 Sunday. History suggests Dallas should come out guns-a-blazing, even if the home team cannot control the whole game. Consistent with this precedent, we are backing Dallas to cover the first half chalk.
In NBA Playoff action, teams down 0-2 have exhibited a strong tendency to beat the first half number in game 3.
This simple system has delivered a statistically significant 22% return on investment back to 2004-05.
Further, this angle is 4-2 ATS so far this season, with the two losses accruing in the first round of postseason play, where the ROI has proven historically weakest.
From the second round forward, this system has won better than two out of three games, on average, good for better than a 30% ROI in each the Conference Semis, the Conference Finals and the Finals. Accordingly, we like the Mavs to exert themselves early.