2021-22 NBA Playoffs: Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks, Game 6
Looking for Phoenix to seal the deal Thursday: Suns -2
The Suns handed the Mavs a 30-point road loss Tuesday, in the most definitive contest of the series so far. This result elevated Phoenix to a 3-2 lead in this second round NBA Playoffs matchup, and put the Suns in position to end the Mavs' season at Dallas' American Airlines Arena Thursday. We are betting that Phoenix will not play with their food, and will in fact secure the the win and cover as two-point road favorites this evening.
Supporting this perspective, we highlight a couple of statistically validated, historical tendencies that suggest the road cover is the most likely outcome of tonight's action. For one, away teams in the catbird seat after decisive game 5 wins usually beat the number in game 6.
In the NBA Playoffs, road teams that participated in last year's postseason and that assumed a 3-2 series lead with a double-digit win have proven GREAT bets.
Backing squads in this position has delivered a whopping 51% (!) return on investment since the 2005-06 postseason (statistically significant at better than the 95% confidence level). Moreover, this angle has suffered cover rates south of 50% in only two seasons over this horizon, and is 2-0 versus the number so far this year.
Separately, postseason home dogs off losses tend to exhibit (negative) short-term momentum.
In the postseason, teams taking points in their building following underdog losses have proven solid fades historically.
This system has amassed a 13% long-term return (also highly statistically significant) and is 9-8 ATS this season.