• @WizeOwlSports

2021-22 NBA Playoffs: Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics, Game 2

Zig-Zag with Boston following the game 1 home loss: Celtics -4.5

After beating Boston 101-89 as five- point underdogs in what would turn out to be a low-sweat win and cover at TD Garden Sunday, Milwaukee improved to an impressive 4-0 SU/ATS record since Khris Middleton went down (the star forward suffered a grade 2 MCL sprain in his left knee in the second game of the first round matchup with the Chicago Bulls).


We don't expect the #2 seeded Celtics to go quietly though, and are betting on Boston to even the series with a cover Tuesday, as 4.5 point favorites. We cite historical precedent as a support for our perspective.


In postseason game 2's, backing teams in the number 1 and number 2 slots after upset losses has proven an extremely profitable long-term strategy.



Since 2004-05, this simple system has delivered a 28% return on investment, statistically significant at better than the 95% confidence level, with only two seasons with a cover rate south of 50%.


(So far this year this angle is 1-0 versus the number.)


As of the time of this writing, Boston's Marcus Smart is listed as questionable after exacerbating a quad contusion in game 1. The spread is likely to move one way or the other once Smart's status is announced definitively.


Milwaukee's Khris Middleton is expected to be sidelined for the entire series.


Happy betting!!