2021-22 NBA Playoffs: Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics, Game 2
Zig-Zag with Boston following the game 1 home loss: Celtics -4.5
After beating Boston 101-89 as five- point underdogs in what would turn out to be a low-sweat win and cover at TD Garden Sunday, Milwaukee improved to an impressive 4-0 SU/ATS record since Khris Middleton went down (the star forward suffered a grade 2 MCL sprain in his left knee in the second game of the first round matchup with the Chicago Bulls).
We don't expect the #2 seeded Celtics to go quietly though, and are betting on Boston to even the series with a cover Tuesday, as 4.5 point favorites. We cite historical precedent as a support for our perspective.
In postseason game 2's, backing teams in the number 1 and number 2 slots after upset losses has proven an extremely profitable long-term strategy.
Since 2004-05, this simple system has delivered a 28% return on investment, statistically significant at better than the 95% confidence level, with only two seasons with a cover rate south of 50%.
(So far this year this angle is 1-0 versus the number.)
As of the time of this writing, Boston's Marcus Smart is listed as questionable after exacerbating a quad contusion in game 1. The spread is likely to move one way or the other once Smart's status is announced definitively.