Betting Miami defends home court with win and cover Thursday: Heat -3.5

The Miami Heat's 11-point win over the Boston Celtics Tuesday improved the club's record to 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS at their FTX Arena this postseason. This streak of excellence unfolded after a 29-12 SU home stint during the regular season. While the Celtics are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS on the road so far in the 2021-22 playoffs (after amassing a superlative 26-15 ATS record away during the regular season), history suggests the Heat should remain undefeated after Thursday's action, covering the -3.5 point spread for game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

In matchups between teams that both saw action in the prior year's postseason proceedings, backing playoff favorites on win streaks of at least three games has proven a very profitable strategy.

This system has been good for a statistically significant 20% return on investment back to the 2005-06 season, after this year's 5-2 ATS run to date.

Bettors have also done well to fade the most active playoff teams team taking points from quality home teams...

Betting against playoff road dogs that have ran at least four games in the last eight days when they face squads that appeared in the prior postseason has likewise delivered strong long-term gains historically.

This latter angle is 6-1 ATS so far this postseason, and has been good for a statistically significant 18% return on investment back to 2005-06.

On personnel, the Celtics' Marcus Smart has been upgraded to probable while Al Horford is doubtful. Boston's Derrick White is out for game 2.

Regarding flows, the Heat are backed by 40% of spread bets tracked by SportsInsights, but 60% of the ATS dollars. This disparity suggests the bigger (presumably sharper) wagers are behind the home team.

Happy betting!!