2021-22 NBA Playoffs: A Strategy for Tuesday's Second Round, Game 5's
Updated: May 11
Backing home favorites versus weary opposition: Heat -2.5 & Suns -6.5
History suggests that, in the postseason, dogs facing quality opposition tend to exhibit fatigue playing on the road after full schedules. This generalization applies both to the Philadelphia 76ers and Dallas Mavericks in their second round game 5's. Accordingly, we are backing the Miami Heat and Phoenix Suns to cover the chalk Tuesday.
In NBA playoff action, fading road teams that played at least four games over the previous eight days versus opposition that participated in the prior postseason has proven a statistically significantly profitable long-term strategy.
This system has delivered a 16% return on investment since the 2005-06 season, and is 2-0 ATS so far this year.
Tonight's action at FTX arena represents the fifth game in the last eight days for the Sixers, who are taking 2.5 points from the Heat as of the time of this writing. The same is true for the Mavs, who will face the Suns as 6.5 point underdogs at Phoenix's Footprint Arena this evening.
(The Heat lost to these same 76ers in the conference semifinals last year, while the Suns' championship ambitions were ultimately thwarted a year ago by the Bucks in game 6 of the NBA Finals.)
Separately, we have observed evidence that, in action featuring two quality franchises, teams tend to empty the tank to win game 4's of NBA playoff series that require a game 5. These clubs tend to come out flat in the fifth meeting.
Backing teams entering game 5's on one or two game losing streaks has proven solidly profitable in postseason competition between organizations that both played in the prior postseason.
This angle has amassed a statistically significant 19% return on investment back to 2005-06 and has submitted cover rates below 50% in only four seasons.
This system is 2-1 ATS so far this year.
(Both the Sixers and Mavs made last year's postseason and collected W's in games 3 and 4 of this year's second round action.)