Betting Nuggets +6 -110 vs. Los Angeles Lakers and o214.5 -110

The Nuggets have been better than the Lakers versus the number in this series (2-1 ATS) and in the post-season (Denver is 11-6 ATS in these playoffs, versus an 8-5 aggregate mark for LA). We expect that game 3's straight-up win, after a game 2 where the Nuggets came up just short, despite a spirited comeback effort, fortified Denver's belief that they can compete with the-studded team from the land of glamour and glitz. We are betting the Denver Nuggets +6 this evening.

Supporting our thinking, we note that since 2005, NBA Playoff fading favorites up 2-1 in a series have covered at a 56% clip, for a 9% ROI.

In the conference finals, this strategy is 9-4 ATS (69%, 34% ROI).

Additionally, betting against favorites with 2-1 leads in the series (in any round of the playoffs), off game 3 losses are 24-13-1 ATS in game 4's (65% cover rate, 26% ROI). This spot is a sterling 6-1 in the Conference Finals (86% cover rate, 70% ROI).

Separately, we are aware that history regards the present spot as a great one for the OVER. As is indicated more thoroughly in the following infographic, though the NBA playoffs overall have demonstrated a modest bias in favor of lower scores (with some really pronounced UNDER biases in particular spots), the OVER for game 4's of the Conference Finals is a stellar 21-10 (68% cover, 32% ROI) since 2005.

Bottom line: The winds of history seem to be blowing strongly ahead of tonight's Western Conference Finals game 4 match-up between the Nuggets and Lakers. We are taking heed to these strong indications and backing the home dogs and the OVER.

Happy betting!!