2020 NBA Playoffs: How to Bet Conference Finals, Game 3
Boston Celtics -3 -103 @ Miami Heat and u207.5 -103
Just as opening games of NBA Conference Finals have exhibited the decided tendency for the underdog to cover, game three too has shown a pronounced bias...but in the other direction.
Since 2005, of 30 Conference Finals game 3's, the favorite covered nearly two times of every three, on average, for a 25% return on investment.
Further, when the favorite is down 0-2 entering the third game of the series, the profitability of backing the team laying chalk swells to a 47% ROI, on a 9-3 (75%) ATS record.
According, we are giving up the three points and betting on a the Celtics rebound here.
We also like the UNDER, pursuant to indications from our computers. But this play too seems to flow with the tides of history, as while backing the UNDER has been something like a break-even proposition in the Conference Finals in general, the present spot has proven distinctly profitable. The UNDER has cashed in after 59% of the 29 Conference Finals game 3's since 2005.
Something to keep in mind for the next game (and the ones thereafter, if we get that far): the OVER has dominated Conference Finals game 4's, then it has more-or-less been all about the UNDER latest games of the the penultimate round of the NBA Playoffs.