LA Lakers -4.5 -110 @ Miami Heat

History is utterly unequivocal. The favorite has covered game 1 of the NBA Finals a stunning 13 times over the last 15 playoffs. As such, we are comfortable backing the Lakers -4.5 in the 2020 NBA Finals opener.

Of note, game 1 is the only contest of the NBA's ultimate playoffs series with a decided edge in favor of the team laying the chalk. In fact, aside from game 1, the other pronounced historical biases are in the underdog's favor (games 4 and 5). Thus, we would normally regard this observation as a strong support for a Lakers cover Wednesday--and (in varying degrees) for the Heat thereafter.

One potential explanation for the advantage favorites have enjoyed in Finals game 1 is that players' circadian rhythms are disturbed when teams must travel extensively, especially from East to West (a circadian rhythm is the internal process that regulates the sleep-wake cycle over a 24-hour span). Worth mentioning, the years long gap in the talent levels between the NBA Western and Eastern Conferences fit with this hypothesis, as teams from the West have been favored in 11 of the last 15 completed Finals game 1's. Thus, the history of the favorite covering game 1 is largely synonymous with the history of teams travelling from East to West to kick off the Finals.

Recent empirical study of this topic supports the thinking about circadian rhythms, finding that teams traveling three hours westward are likely to win fewer games than either teams playing within the same time zone or teams moving east. This analysis also documented higher scores for teams travelling east versus teams headed west.

The NBA Bubble environment negates considerations regarding the impact of travel this year though. However, we have observed additional contextual data that supports our expectation for the Lakers cover tomorrow. Namely, the Lakers' consistently high level of play, per se, implies an ATS edge vs. the Heat Wednesday. Teams entering a new post-season series after winning at least three of their last four games have proven strong wagers when facing teams with no better than 50% recent SU win rates. Backing teams in this position has generated a 26% ROI since 2005.

Consistent with the notion illustrated in the first chart, that favorites lose their edge after game 1, (surprisingly) Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight sees the Heat hoisting the coveted Larry O'Brien trophy at the conclusion of this year's action roughly three times out of four. The series price on the Heat is currently +275 at Bovada, implying massive value with Miami (if FiveThirtyEight is close to right, the number on Miami to dispatch LA should be closer to -275 than +275). As such, a small play on Miami to win probably makes sense for bettors inclined to hedge a play on the Lakers to cover game 1...and might make sense for astute gamblers generally.

Remarkably, 76% of ATS dollars on this contest tracked by The Action Network are in support of the Nuggets (Lebron huh and Anthony who?). As a result, the spread has closed from the opening level of Lakers -5 to the present -4.5. Further, there is evidence that Miami is the preferred play of bigger, sharper bettors. As such, the Lakers to cover appears to be an 'out on a limb' pick. If any fellow truth seekers find themselves inclined to join me up here in this tree, it might makes sense to wait until closer to tip-off to commit, as lopsided flows might force the spread to contract further.

Bottom line: The broad history of how NBA Finals series open says get down with the King for game 1. However, the absence of travel in the NBA Bubble might sap this historical advantage. Even still, the Lakers' consistency (and the Nuggets' more erratic play of late) likewise argues that the play is on the favorites for the series opener. As a non-correlated play, the Heat to win the title +275 (per the work of the esteemed statisticians at FiveThirtyEight), affords bettors the opportunity to manage some risk associated with siding with LA Wednesday, and perhaps represents an intelligent flyer more generally speaking.

Happy betting!!