Our computers favor u228.5 when the Nets host the Celtics in Christmas Day NBA action Friday afternoon. Consistent with this indication, we also observe historical support for the expectation for disappointingly low offensive output in this Atlantic Division showdown. Accordingly, we are getting down on the UNDER.

Validating the signal from our machines, UNDERs have proven solidly profitable in early-season NBA games featuring over-prone home teams, delivering a historical 10% return on investment since 2005.

(This system actually calls for the UNDER to run the Christmas table or, in layman's terms, for all games on Thursday's docket to finish UNDER the betting total.)

Relatedly, when points-friendly home teams face road teams associated with low output (as indicated by an O/U win rate of 25% or less) early in the season, the profitability of backing the UNDER more than doubles, to a 21% historical ROI.

Contests featuring teams taking more than a point but less than two buckets in thier division has proven solid spots to back the UNDER. Worth noting, this second system is a lackluster 1-1 on the season, so far.

Happy betting!!